Hurricane Paulette to threaten Bermuda next week

Bermuda faces its first significant hurricane threat in the shape of intensifying storm Paulette which is expected to become hurricane Paulette within hours and is forecast to track very close to Bermuda early next week.

Based on the latest forecasts Bermuda is expected to see hurricane force winds as hurricane Paulette passes nearby, but a direct hit cannot be ruled out as the forecasts show the storm moving very near to the archipelago.

As a home to insurance, reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) market activity and sitting directly in a hurricane prone part of the Atlantic Bermuda is exceptionally well-prepared.

But we’d urge our friends, colleagues and contacts located there to watch Paulette closely, as some forecast models suggest a relatively intense hurricane of Category 2 or higher by the time the storm reaches Bermuda.

The graphic below shows the earliest expected arrival time of tropical storm force winds from hurricane Paulette and the current expectation that there is a strong possibility that Bermuda will sit within the hurricane force wind swathe of the storm.

In addition, the below image taken from TropicalTidbits.com shows forecast model runs for the potential intensity of hurricane Paulette, which currently suggest a Category 1 hurricane at least by the time the storm reaches Bermuda. If intensification is faster Paulette could be Cat 2 or higher it seems.

Of course, with Bermuda a relatively small target in an enormous expanse of ocean, hurricane Paulette could easily pass by and some forecast models show the storm turning before it gets too close.

But as the first proper hurricane threat of the 2020 season, we’d urge our insurance, reinsurance and ILS colleagues in Bermuda to remain alert over the coming days.

The National Hurricane Center (NYC) currently warns, “Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Paulette. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Gradual strengthening is expected to begin tonight or on Saturday, and Paulette is forecast to become a hurricane this weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette should approach Bermuda Sunday night and Monday.”