Hurricane Douglas forecast for rare Hawaii landfall

Hurricane Douglas is currently a very strong major Category 4 hurricane travelling across the central Pacific and is now forecast with a high chance of making a rare landfall on one of the islands of Hawaii.

Hurricane Douglas intensified into a major storm in recent days, but as of now seems to have peaked with 130 mph Category 4 sustained winds and higher gusts.

Gradual weakening is forecast as hurricane Douglas tracks towards the islands of Hawaii, but the storm stands a strong chance of maintaining at least low hurricane force winds by the time it reaches them.

At the moment the forecast map above shows that hurricane Douglas is targeting the Hawaiian island of Maui, but with a day or two to track that could change and the Big Island is not yet clear of any Douglas landfall threat.

Douglas provides a useful reminder that the threat posed to the reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) industry from named storms and hurricanes is not only in the Atlantic, but that U.S. property insured exposures also exist in sufficient concentration to cause significant reinsurance losses in the Pacific as well.

A few outstanding catastrophe bonds that cover named storm risks are also on-risk for a Hawaiian hurricane, but it would need to be considerably larger in terms of landfall severity than Douglas looks set to be for any cat bonds to be troubled.

The National Hurricane Centre (NHC) provided the following update on hurricane Douglas as it tracks towards Hawaii.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…15.7N 140.3W
ABOUT 1010 MI…1630 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…130 MPH…215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…954 MB…28.17 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Douglas. Watches could be issued on Friday for a portion of the area.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 140.3 West. Douglas is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a gradual decrease in forward speed and a slight turn toward the west. On the forecast track Douglas will approach the Hawaiian Islands Saturday night, and be near those Islands on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Douglas is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected to begin on Friday and continue through the weekend. Douglas is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Hawaiian Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches).