Hurricane Hanna strengthens as it nears Texas landfall

Hurricane Hanna is now the first hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic tropical storm season, with winds having reached 80mph and further strengthening expected as Hanna approaches the Texas coastline to make landfall later today.

Hanna was a tropical storm yesterday and while it was expected to strengthen it was only given a low probability of reaching hurricane status.

But hurricane Hanna has defied some of the forecast models, to become the first hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic season and intensify further as it moves towards the Texas coastline.

Insurance, reinsurance and ILS market interests may have had a closer eye on tropical storm Gonzalo as yesterday forecasts suggested it could make it through the Caribbean, but now that storm is dissipating and hurricane Hanna has become the one to watch.

Hurricane Hanna currently has sustained winds of 80mph with higher gusts to 100mph or more, but some further strengthening is still forecast as Hanna slowly moves towards a landfall in Texas somewhere on the central Padre Island seashore.

Hurricane Hanna has another 6 to 10 hours over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico to strengthen as it approaches landfall on the Texas coast later today, meaning further strengthening is likely and Hanna could become a strong category 1 storm, a weak category 2 at an outside chance, before it makes landfall.

The modelled intensity forecast from TropicalTidbits.com shows a continued spike in wind speeds is expected up until landfall.

The Texas coastal islands are already experiencing storm surge from hurricane Hanna, while the forecast is for coastal inundation totals of 2 to 5 feet above normal sea levels widely around the landfall region.

Significant rainfall totals are expected with hurricane Hanna, with the potential for isolated totals of 18 inches or perhaps more and life-threatening flash flood warnings raised for the southern Texas coastal region.

Adding to the challenges, hurricane Hanna is coming ashore in a region of Texas where Covid-19 cases have been spiking in recent weeks, raising issues around distancing at evacuation centers should they be needed.

Insurance, reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) interests may not face all that significant wind damage losses from this first hurricane of the season, Hanna has a relatively small eye with hurricane-force winds only extending outward up to 25 miles from the center.

But, should rainfall totals reach the 18 inch forecast there is the potential for a water driven insured loss, although much of that would fall to the NFIP rather than the private market.

The latest update from the NHC can be seen below:

…HANNA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT CRAWLS CLOSER TO THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST…
…GUSTY SQUALLS OCCURRING ALONG THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST…

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…27.1N 96.3W
ABOUT 75 MI…120 KM ENE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
ABOUT 85 MI…135 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…978 MB…28.88 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued north of Sargent,
Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to Mesquite Bay Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Barra el Mezquital Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas
* Mesquite Bay to Sargent Texas

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Hanna was located by reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 96.3 West. Hanna is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion should continue through this morning. A gradual turn toward the west-southwest is expected by late afternoon and tonight, and that motion should continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Hanna should make landfall along the Texas coast within the hurricane warning area by late afternoon or early this evening.

Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some further strengthening is possible before Hanna makes landfall later today. Rapid weakening is expected after Hanna moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).

Reports from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Baffin Bay to Mesquite Bay including Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, and Aransas Bay…3-5 ft

Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay…2-4 ft

Mesquite Bay to Sargent including San Antonio Bay and Matagorda Bay…2-4 ft

Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield…1-3 ft

North of Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay…1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the warning area and will spread inland through the afternoon and evening.

RAINFALL: Hanna is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches through Sunday night in south Texas and into the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas. This rain may result in life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor to moderate river flooding in south Texas.

3 to 5 inches of rain is expected along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and overnight over parts of the lower to middle Texas coastal plain.